IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE             

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

OKMULGEE             

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER             
LE FLORE              MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG           
PUSHMATAHA    

FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

* IN OKLAHOMA...WASHINGTON...OTTAWA...PAWNEE...OSAGE...CRAIG AND
   NOWATA. 


* THE FROST ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER FOR THIS AREA HAS BEEN
   UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* CLEARING LATE TONIGHT IN THE WARNING AREA WILL ALLOW FOR
   SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY DAYLIGHT.

IMPACTS...
* THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL PLANTS THAT ARE LEFT OUTDOORS
   OR UNPROTECTED.

DEFINITION...
* A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* PRECAUTIONS SHOULD ALSO BE TAKEN TO PROTECT PLANTS.


FROST ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF
THE FROST ADVISORY AND IT IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

* IN OKLAHOMA...WAGONER...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...
   MUSKOGEE...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES AND DELAWARE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* CLEARING LATE TONIGHT IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL ALLOW FOR
   FROST TO FORM BY DAYLIGHT.

IMPACTS...
* SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED FROM
   THE COLD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* COVER OUTDOOR PLANTS OR BRING THEM INDOORS

The slight risk area is mainly NW of Tulsa but all of NE OK could see a chance of large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado if storms develop this afternoon.

All of NE OK can expect much cooler temps Wednesday morning with frost possible in some areas.

Here is the Tulsa NWS risk map for today:

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

* IN OKLAHOMA...PAWNEE...WASHINGTON...OSAGE...CRAIG...NOWATA...
   CREEK...TULSA AND ROGERS.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT
   AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BRISTOW TO VINITA.
   THIS IS A VERY LATE SEASON FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THIS PART OF
   NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOWS.
   ALTHOUGH TULSA COUNTY IS INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING...MOST
   OF THE TULSA METRO AREA ITSELF WILL NOT EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD
   FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WITH MORE RURAL AREAS OF THE COUNTY
   BEING MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.

IMPACTS...
* THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL PLANTS AND OTHER TENDER VEGETATION
   THAT ARE LEFT OUTDOORS OR UNPROTECTED.

DEFINITION...
* A FREEZE WARNING MEANS FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* PRECAUTIONS SHOULD ALSO BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SMALL PLANTS AND
   TENDER VEGETATION.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
  NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST
  CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...OKFUSKEE. IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CRAIG...
  CREEK...DELAWARE...MAYES...NOWATA...OKMULGEE...OSAGE...
  OTTAWA...PAWNEE...ROGERS...TULSA...WAGONER AND WASHINGTON.



* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
  THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
  THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TWO ROUNDS OF
  RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE FIRST BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR
  TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS
  THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SECOND ROUND OF
  RAINFALL IS THE MOST LIKELY...AND WILL ACCOMPANY AN EXPECTED
  SQUALL LINE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
  THE ACCUMULATED RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE
THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT
QUICKLY. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER
BEGINS TO RISE. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF
UNKNOWN DEPTH. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR
WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 116 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 17 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE            

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CRAIG                 CREEK                 DELAWARE            
MAYES                 NOWATA                OKMULGEE            
OSAGE                 OTTAWA                PAWNEE              
ROGERS                TULSA                 WAGONER             
WASHINGTON           

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

MCINTOSH             

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BARTLESVILLE...BRISTOW...
CLAREMORE...EUFAULA...JAY...MIAMI...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...PRYOR...TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...
VINITA AND WAGONER.

The latest SPC forecast has been modified to include a wider area for tornado risk. This area extends from SW Oklahoma NE in OKC, and along I44 into Missouri.

Here is the latest tornado risk map from the SPC:


This change also includes a decrease in the possibility of severe storms until this evening.

Discrete supercells are expected to form in NW Texas/SW OK and track NE into NE Oklahoma this evening.
Very large hail and tornados are the primary risks with a possibility of a few strong tornados.

After these storms clear the area, a line of storms is expected to form and swing through the area bringing a risk of damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rain of 1-2 inches late this evening.

In the short term, some thunderstorms are forming across NE OK, especially along and N of I44. These are not expected to become severe at this time.

Updates to follow...

The SPC has placed most of Oklahoma in the moderate risk area for severe weather today. This included risks for large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and heavy rain.

The tornado chances in NE Oklahoma are not as great as SW Oklahoma but any cells that develop and remain discrete in NE Oklahoma could become tornadic.

There is a chance of storms developing over NE Oklahoma this morning then again late this afternoon and they are likely this evening. There remains some model disagreement so updates will follow.

Here is the Tulsa NWS risk map for today.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
109 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CRAIG                 NOWATA                OSAGE               
OTTAWA                PAWNEE                WASHINGTON          

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BARTLESVILLE...MIAMI...NOWATA...
PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE AND VINITA.

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ADAIR, ELAWARE, MAYES,OKMULGEE, WAGONER.
I SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
                  CHOCTAW, HSKELL,  LATIMER , LE FLORE              MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG             PUSHMATAHA    

THIS
                  INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANTLERS...BENTONVILLE... BERRYVILLE...CHARLESTON...CLAYTON...EUFAULA...EUREKA SPRINGS... FAYETTEVILLE...FORT
                  SMITH...HUGO...HUNTSVILLE...JAY...MCALESTER... MUSKOGEE...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...OZARK...POTEAU...PRYOR...ROGERS... SALLISAW...SPRINGDALE...STIGLER...STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...
                  VAN BUREN...WAGONER AND WILBURTON.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED

WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...NEAR A SURFACE FRONT AND DRYLINE

ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...BEFORE SLOWLY

DEVELOPING
                  NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY

DAMAGING
                  WIND GUSTS MAY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS

INITIALLY...BUT...BY
                  EARLY EVENING...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES PROBABLY

WILL INCREASE WITH STRONGEST
                  STORMS.

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 710 PM UNTIL
   100 AM CDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

 

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              SEQUOYAH             

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

ADAIR                 CRAIG                 CREEK                
DELAWARE              MAYES                 NOWATA               
OKMULGEE              OSAGE                 OTTAWA               
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA                
WAGONER               WASHINGTON            

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BARTLESVILLE...BRISTOW...
CLAREMORE...JAY...MIAMI...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...OKMULGEE...
PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...PRYOR...SALLISAW...STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...
TULSA...VINITA AND WAGONER.

   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
   BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TULSA OKLAHOMA. 
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

* IN OKLAHOMA...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...
   WAGONER...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWARE...PAWNEE...OTTAWA...
   PUSHMATAHA...CHOCTAW...WASHINGTON...OSAGE...CRAIG...NOWATA...
   PITTSBURG...SEQUOYAH...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...LE FLORE...LATIMER
   AND HASKELL.

   IN ARKANSAS...WASHINGTON...MADISON...CRAWFORD...BENTON...
   SEBASTIAN...CARROLL AND FRANKLIN.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* COLD AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
   TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING OVER
   A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE MORE
   SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE
   THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR. HOWEVER...TYPICALLY COLD
   LOCATIONS MAY STILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. PERSONS WHO
   HAVE ALREADY PLANTED TENDER VEGETATION SHOULD CONSIDER
   PROTECTING THEIR PLANTINGS.

IMPACTS...
* THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL PLANTS AND OTHER TENDER VEGETATION
   THAT ARE LEFT OUTDOORS OR UNPROTECTED.

DEFINITION...
* A FREEZE WARNING MEANS FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* OUTDOOR WATER PIPES SHOULD BE WRAPPED...DRAINED...OR ALLOWED TO
   RUN IN A SLOW STEADY STREAM. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD ALSO BE TAKEN TO
   PROTECT SMALL PLANTS AND TENDER VEGETATION.

Thunderstorms failed to form along and in front of the cold front but are expected to form behind the cold front that is currently moving into the Tulsa area.

1-2 inches of rain is expected overnight along with potentially large amounts of small hail and a chance of large hail and damaging winds.

Storms are expected to become more numerous towards midnight and last through Wednesday morning. Temps will fall into the 40's by midnight and 30's shortly thereafter and will struggle to reach 40 on Tuesday. There is a freeze expected Wednesday overnight into Thursday morning.

Updates to follow if needed...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4
AM TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...PAWNEE AND OSAGE.



HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LATE TONIGHT AND
   CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FREEZING RAIN MAY ACCUMULATE ON
   ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND POWER LINES.

* LITTLE SLEET ACCUMULATION AND LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF ICE
   ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY.

IMPACTS...
* POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SOME SLICK
   SPOTS MAY DEVELOP ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

DEFINITION...
* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY
   ACCUMULATE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* USE EXTRA CAUTION IF DRIVING...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND
   OVERPASSES.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR
   TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER
   EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
   WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

There remains a slight risk of severe weather across all of NE Oklahoma. This means that severe weather will likely occur but the level of severity is not expected to be as high as before.

The primary threat along the front will be isolated and brief tornados as circulations develop with very little notice. Large hail to the size of tennis balls will become an increasing threat after the cold front moves through.
If a storm happens to get going well ahead of the cold front it would likely be tornadic and contain hail to the size of baseballs.

The severe threat is highest for Tulsa and points west from 7PM-1AM and from Tulsa to the east after 1AM.

A tornado watch will likely be issued west of Tulsa in the next couple of hours and it will likely be expanded eastward as the evening progresses.

The area at risk is the same as the previous update with the only difference being that the moderate risk area is now a slight risk area. 1-2 inches of rain is also expected across most of the area.

An update will be posted when a watch is issued for NE Oklahoma.

The chance for the most severe weather appears to be just west of Tulsa at this point but severe weather is expected to impact all of NE Oklahoma this evening.

Large hail to tennis ball size, damaging winds, and tornado's are possible with the main tornado threat appearing to be from Tulsa to the west.
 
Scattered storms could form early this evening to the west of Tulsa. If they do, they would likely become severe very quickly and would have the capability to form large tornados. As the evening progresses, a line of storms is expected to form along a cold front and sweep through the area after 9:00. Large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, and even an embedded tornado is possible in this line.

Here are the SPC and Tulsa NWS severe weather graphics for today.
Updates to follow throughout the day.

There is a slight risk of severe weather for all of NE Oklahoma for primarily Tuesday evening after 6:00pm.

Large hail, damaging winds, and even a chance of tornadoes are possible through midnight then large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain through noon on Wednesday.

Here is the SPC risk map.

 

Updates to follow. Most likely Tuesday morning.