A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for all of Eastern Oklahoma until 5:00AM.
Damaging winds are the primary threat along with damaging hail, and frequent lightning.

Here is the watch area:

The storms formed later than expected and are moving east a little slower.

Storms are lining up west of Tulsa and will continue to move east. Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes remain possible. The current severe thunderstorm watch will likely be extended to cover all of eastern Oklahoma.

Storms are expect to be in Tulsa around 10:00 or 11:00.


Here is a look at current radar:

A Particularly Dangerous Situation Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 11:00PM.

Damaging winds to 80+ MPH with hail to tennis ball size is very possible. There is a tornado threat, mainly west of Tulsa, but the biggest threat is damaging winds and large hail.

Here is the current NWS watch box.

With the combination of large hail and the expected very strong winds, the threat for damage is amplified. Golfball size hail being driven by 60MPH winds can cause significant damage.

Severe thunderstorm warnings issued tonight will possibly be for extremely severe storms. Stay away from windows and doors, and if in your car, try to seek shelter inside a sturdy structure if the area you're in is warned. Being by windows or in your car with large hail and strong winds is very dangerous.

The storms could be in the Tulsa area as early as 6:00 but most likely after 7:00.

Damaging winds to 80+ MPH with hail to tennis ball size is very possible. There is a tornado threat, mainly west of Tulsa, but the biggest threat is damaging winds and large hail.

A lot of the updates recently have indicated the threats for high winds and large hail but in those instances they haven't been expected to occur together. Tonight is different as they are expected to occur together in some areas. 

With the combination of large hail and the expected very strong winds, the threat for damage is amplified. Golfball size hail being driven by 60MPH winds can cause significant damage.

Severe thunderstorm warnings issued tonight will possibly be for extremely severe storms. Stay away from windows and doors, and if in your car, try to seek shelter inside a sturdy structure if the area your in is warned. Being by windows or in your car with large hail and strong winds is very dangerous.

The storms could be in the Tulsa area as early as 6:00 but most likely after 7:00.


Here is the Tulsa NWS max wind gust graphic that indicates the potential for 100+ MPH winds west of Tulsa and 80+ MPH winds in Tulsa. 






Here is the NWS max hail size graphic indicating up to 2 3/4 inches possible in Tulsa.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
836 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011


...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

* IN OKLAHOMA...PAWNEE...WASHINGTON...OSAGE...CRAIG...NOWATA...
   CREEK...OTTAWA...WAGONER...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES AND DELAWARE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

IMPACTS...
* WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
   HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

DEFINITION...
* A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. BE ALERT TO
   SUDDEN GUSTS OF WIND WHICH MAY CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR
   VEHICLE. EXTRA ATTENTION SHOULD BE GIVEN TO CROSS WINDS AND ON
   BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
   FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER EVENT.
   ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
   WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

Damaging winds to 80MPH, hail to the size of tennis balls, and tornadoes are possible, especially in the early evening and west of highway 75. While the tornado threat decreases later and east of highway 75, all types of severe weather are possible as the line of storms traverses eastern Oklahoma.

Storms may be entering the Tulsa area as early as 6:00PM this evening.

The Tulsa area is currently under a slight risk of severe weather but parts of the area may be upgraded to a moderate risk by the SPC later today.


Here is the latest SPC risk map:




Here is one models representation of radar for 6:00PM this evening:

Storms still possible north of I-244 but chance in Tulsa remain small.
I got surprised a few nights ago so I am hesitant to say the chances in Tulsa are zero.

Updates forthcoming as needed.

Another watch may issued later for the Tulsa area.

Current Watches and Warnings from the Tulsa NWS:




Current Radar:

There is a risk for severe weather this evening and tonight with damaging winds, hail to the size of tennis balls, and possibly an isolated tornado.

Here is the Tulsa NWS risk graphic for this evening:

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for most of NE Oklahoma. A line of severe storms NW of Tulsa are expected to track through the area this afternoon. Damaging winds are the primary threat although large hail is possible.

Below is the watch area in yellow:


 

Current radar:

I hope everyone enjoyed the early morning and unexpected storms even though the wake up call was a tad early, at least for me.

A threat of severe weather remains this afternoon as another complex has formed and is moving SE through central Kansas as some storms trying to develop west and northwest of Tulsa.

Here is the SPC risk map for today:




Here is the current local radar:

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CADDO                CANADIAN            CARTER
CHEROKEE             CLEVELAND           COMANCHE
COTTON               CRAIG               CREEK
DELAWARE             GARVIN              GRADY
HUGHES               JACKSON             JEFFERSON
KIOWA                LINCOLN             LOGAN
MAYES                MCCLAIN             MCINTOSH
MURRAY               MUSKOGEE            NOWATA
OKFUSKEE             OKLAHOMA            OKMULGEE
OSAGE                OTTAWA              PAWNEE
PAYNE                PONTOTOC            POTTAWATOMIE
ROGERS               SEMINOLE            STEPHENS
TILLMAN              TULSA               WAGONER
WASHINGTON


The watch area is in yellow below:

A slight risk of severe weather remains for this evening and possibly during the overnight hours across NE Oklahoma. Storms have begun to form west of Tulsa and should continue to expand in coverage as the evening progresses with storms possibly affecting the Tulsa area as early as 6:00pm.

Damaging winds are the primary threat along with a slight chance of hail up to the size of tennis balls.


Here is the current SPC severe weather risk graphic for this evening:




And, the Tulsa NWS highest probable wind gust graphic in MPH for the evening.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued for the area  in the next hour.

The SPC graphic below shows the likely area for the watch inside the blue oval.

There is a slight risk of severe weather tonight across most of NE Oklahoma. Damaging winds appear to the primary threat with these storms that, if they form, will most likely affect the Tulsa area after 6:00.

There is a good chance we will see storms this evening and get some much needed rain.


Here is the SPC risk map for today:





Here is the max possible wind gusts from the Tulsa NWS for this evening. This is noted in MPH.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for parts of NE Oklahoma. Damaging winds and hail to the size of golfballs are possible with any storms.

A line of strong to severe storms storms is currently along I=35 from the Kansas border to Oklahoma City and SW moving east. These storms will likey be severe when they enter the Tulsa area after 2:30 with damaging winds likely. If they begin to fall apart near Tulsa, damaging winds remain possible.

Here is the NWS Watch:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
466 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 18 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE            

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

ADAIR                 CRAIG                 CREEK               
DELAWARE              MAYES                 NOWATA              
OKMULGEE              OSAGE                 OTTAWA              
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA               
WAGONER               WASHINGTON           

Here is a graphical representation of the watch:




Please stay tuned to local NWS Radio, KRMG 102.3FM/740AM or televised media for later updates and possible warnings.

There is a slight risk of severe weather today across all of NE Oklahoma.

Winds to 60MPH and hail to the size of tennis balls are possible in the area. Storms could form in the Tulsa area as early as 3:00pm.


Here is the SPC risk map for today:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
458 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CRAIG                 NOWATA                OSAGE               
OTTAWA                PAWNEE                WASHINGTON          

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BARTLESVILLE...MIAMI...NOWATA...
PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE AND VINITA.

Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

Storm should remain west of Tulsa through 11:00PM

There is a slight risk of severe weather across parts NE Oklahoma today.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat.

Here is the SPC severe weather risk map for today:




Not everyone in the threat area are expected to see storms today and there is a slightly better chance of rain and thunderstorms on Saturday.